SCOTO Bets Preview: Condit vs. Brown

The co-main event features two veteran fighters who have each suffered some tough losses in recent years. Carlos Condit comes into this fight off of a bounce-back win over Court McGee, which was preceded by five straight losses to some of the better competition in the welterweight division.

Matt Brown recently had a two-fight winning streak snapped by skyrocketing prospect, Miguel Baeza. Those two wins were knockouts of Ben Saunders and Diego Sanchez. He is 3-4 over his last seven, and all of those fights have been finished inside the distance.

Condit is a long and athletic kickboxer with very smooth footwork and rhythm. He has excellent fight IQ and is very good at picking his spots. He possesses a lot of power and can stop fights with his hands. He tends to pick up his pace as his fights go on.

He attacks with multiple looks and is effective in both stances. He throws a lot of kicks to the midsection and a variety of boxing combinations. He does hold a low guard and can get caught in tight. He lands nasty short elbows stepping into the pocket.

Condit has found himself largely neutralized by effective wrestlers and jiu jitsu players, like Michael Chiesa, Alex Oliveira and Demian Maia. Each of these fighters submitted Condit within two rounds. He has been taken down in 18 of his 22 WEC/UFC fights, and his career takedown defense is 36%. He isn’t defenseless on the ground though, he’s a purple belt under Nate Harris at 10th Planet and has six career victories by submission.

Condit’s disadvantage as a grappler doesn’t bode well for him in this matchup with Matt Brown, a brown belt in both BJJ and Judo. Though Brown doesn’t have formal wrestling credentials, he has trained with Ohio State’s grapplers at their training center in Columbus.

That advantage will only come into play for Brown if he decides to impose it. His usual style is standing and swinging in the pocket. He is a patient boxer who throws every strike with intention. He’s most comfortable in a dog fight, and has nasty elbows and knees in the clinch.

The problem with Brown’s wild swinging in the pocket is that he gets caught by intelligent counter strikers. If this fight goes the distance, it could be Condit’s fight. He’s the better defensive striker in this one. Though Brown has had his moments in his recent losses, his only moments in his recent wins have been the moments in which he finished the fights.

Condit is a more well rounded and technically sound fighter. He has the speed advantage and is a smarter fighter than Brown. I don’t anticipate Brown utilizing his grappling and Condit should be able to stay one step ahead of Brown over three rounds.

Condit is a fairly priced favorite at -160, Condit by decision at +200 is a sweet value play, and Brown by KO/TKO at +350 is a necessary hedge play, considering his power and aggression.

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